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 Irish Macro Economic Forecasts


 Updated mid-June 2020 

Real GDP (% change) 2019  2020(e)
 2021(f) Comment
   Personal Consumption  2.8 -12.0 8.0 Non-food spending collapse in Lockdown
   Government Consumption 5.6 2.0 3.0 Govt spending surge but on transfers
   Capital Formation  94.1 32.0 22.0  extraordinarily volatile
   -  Building and Construction  6.8  -5.0 5.0  strong start will support annual average
   - Machinery, Equipment, Intangibles 133.6 40.0 25.0  largely GDP neutral as mostly imports
  Stocks (% of GDP)  0.5  0.6  0.9  
  Exports 11.1 0.0 5.0 Proving resilient to date.
  Imports  35.6 11.0 13.0 dampened by fall in consumption
  GDP 5.5 -3.5 5.0 coronavirus longevity big unknown
  GNP 3.3 -4.0 5.0  
         
  Domestic Demand 35.3 12.0 16.0  
  GDP (€bn) 347.2  335.0 351.0  
         
 Labour Market        
   Employment (% change)  2.9  -3.0 4.0  
  Unemployment rate (%) 4.9 9.3 8.6  
         
Inflation        
   CPI (% change)
0.9 -0.5 0.5  Collapse in oil prices main factor
   HICP (% change)
0.7 0.6 0.5  
         
Fiscal Indicators
       
  Government Debt ( % of GDP)
58.8 65.7 65.5  
  General Government Balance (% of GDP)
0.4 -6.0 -4.0